The connection between education and industry is not new, however their mutual relationship has sometimes been perceived as a troubled one. This refers to the relatively slow adaptability of educational systems to the needs of professional world. The newest developments in ICT as well as the scenario building tool allow the two worlds to meet and learn from each other. The scenario building tool has been primarily used in the business-related contexts, however it can be applied in a number of educational contexts. As a result, it links both spheres which have previously been separated form each other

Scenario building is a practical tool which helps develop forward-thinking strategies. It also stimulates reflective and collaborative thinking skills which result in the possibility to imagine alternative futures. The aim of developing scenario building strategies is to stimulate innovation and to support strategic decisions. In education, it is designed to stimulate awareness with teachers and school leaders about possible future changes and challenges as well as to make them aware of the need to face them.

Five steps to develop scenarios (1)
Step 0: Deciding the key-question for the scenarios
Step 1: Identifying the fields of change
Step 2: Selecting the most important fields of change
Step 3: Identifying the scenarios to be developed
Step 4: Describing the scenarios and bringing them to life

The scenarios presented by Lex Stomp are centred around a two-dimensional matrix where the axes indicate the two driving forces in the construction of society: hierarchical (traditional) versus participatory (radical) and inclusive versus exclusive.

(2)

The methodology which is used to build a scenario is easily accessible and free on the Internet.

An interesting article which discusses both the use and the methodology of scenario building has been written by Marco Snoek (3). According to the author the scenarios should be challenging and recognisable. This can be done by bringing them to life or by visualising them, ‘by describing a day in the life of a student, schoolteacher or teacher education, by describing or drawing the architecture of the school building, organisation models, role-plays, etc.’ (4)

The process of developing a scenario focuses on an in-depth analysis of trends and developments which might have a direct impact on the future. Such a reflective and collaborative exercise presents a new approach to the analysis of the future trends and can stimulate the change of mental maps and conceptual models. In other words, it emphasises the fact that there is not one pathway into the future.  This, in return, creates awareness of possible and necessary changes in society and education.

The concept of scenario building has been successfully used on a large scale by a number of business organisations and companies such as Shell and the Global Business Network. In the education sphere, one of the very first scenarios in education included the OECD scenarios for higher education (5). The scenarios have been constructed in a time frame of approximately 15 to 20 years. They can be divided into 3 categories: the ‘status quo extrapolated’, the ‘re-schooling’ scenarios and the ‘de-schooling’ scenarios. Scenarios 1 and 2, i.e. ‘Robust bureaucratic school systems’ and ‘Extending the market model’, belong to the first category whereas the two subsequent scenarios, i.e. ‘Schools as core social centres’ and ‘Schools as focused learning organisations’ form part of the ‘re-schooling scenarios’. Last but not least, scenarios 5 and 6 which are titled ‘Learner networks and the network society’ and “Teacher exodus – the ‘meltdown’ scenario” constitute the 3rd category. The scenarios have been structured within a framework of variables that determine the shape of school systems and include: a) attitudes, expectations, political support; b) goals and functions for schooling; c) organisation and structures; d) the geo-political dimension; e) the teaching force. Each of the variables needs to be analysed in order to prepare a full picture of the future scenario.

EUN has also carried out work in the field in the framework of the Valnet project. David Wood’s ‘Think Report’ (6) presents four scenarios which describe the role of ICT in education in the next 5 years (Scenario 1: ICT strengthens the centralised regulation of schooling; Scenario 2: ICT supports the creation of schools as “learning organisations”; Scenario 3: Citizenship at the Centre; Scenario 4: ICT fails to deliver: Technology melts down). These are further developed in the ‘Think Again’ report (8). 

About the authors:
Lex Stomp currently works as a manager at department of teacher training for secondary education at Windesheim University. Carly Klein is a lecturer of English at Teacher Education Department for Primary Education. Windesheim University is one of the largest of the 55 Universities of Applied Sciences in the Netherlands. It offers study programmes in 50 different disciplines, which are grouped within the various departments. The college philosophy is outward looking and encompasses certain key ethical values such as truth, honesty, kindness and mutual respect.

(1) Marco Snoek, ‘The Use and Methodology of Scenario Making’:
https://intra.ehva.nl/algemeen/kennis/projecten/scenariowriting/publications_of_rdcmember/EJTE26-1%2002%20use%20and%20methodology%20of%20scenarios.pdf

(2) Scenario writing in education:
https://intra.ehva.nl/algemeen/kennis/projecten/scenariowriting/other_scenario_examples/

(3) Marco Snoek, ‘The Use and Methodology of Scenario Making’:
https://intra.ehva.nl/algemeen/kennis/projecten/scenariowriting/publications_of_rdcmember/EJTE26-1%2002%20use%20and%20methodology%20of%20scenarios.pdf

(4) Marco Snoek, ‘The Use and Methodology of Scenario Making’, page 17.

(5) Schooling for Tomorrow What Schools for the Future?, OECD Publications, 2001.

(6) The Think Report:
http://resources.eun.org/insight/think_report.pdf

(7) Think Again Report:
http://www.eun.org/insight-pdf/ernist/David_Wood_Think_Again.pdf

Further reading:

Scenarios:
https://intra.ehva.nl/algemeen/kennis/projecten/scenariowriting/publications_of_rdcmember/
https://intra.ehva.nl/algemeen/kennis/projecten/scenariowriting/scenario_links/

Valnet Project:
http://community.eun.org/sub_community.cfm?area=186&sa=1255